SnogBlogy

This series answers numerous fantasy-centric issues following the week’s Sunday slate of games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). Like three surging QBs to target for upcoming byes, how the Bears’ and Vikings’ backfields are shaking out and more. It uses advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at TheFootballScientist.com.

The EPA metrics detailed below are per TruMedia. Other advanced metrics outside of my unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

Note: The app’s dark display theme can interfere with how the tables in this article look. If you’re on the app, please switch to light mode by tapping on the Aa button at the top to properly view it.

Quarterbacks

1. What quarterback upgrades are available for fantasy managers over the next few weeks?

Over the next three weeks, five quarterbacks who are rostered in 73 percent or more of ESPN leagues (Joe Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Geno Smith) will be on byes. Add those schedule absences to the middling performances of late from Trevor Lawrence (19th in QB PPG), Jared Goff (17th), and Daniel Jones (24th) and many fantasy managers either will be or should be in the market for an upgrade at this position.

Advertisement

Here’s is an overview of three strong fill-in options: Joshua Dobbs (roster availability: 98 percent), C.J. Stroud (roster availability: 69.3 percent), and Sam Howell (roster availability: 91 percent). We’ll start by noting their volume of points and rankings among quarterbacks in four categories: overall points, vertical points (production on aerials thrown 11+ yards downfield), short points (production on throws traveling 10 or fewer yards) and rushing points.

Joshua Dobbs

• Overall QB PPG – 16th (16.66)
• Vertical PPG – 14th (5.63)
• Short PPG – 20th (6.51)
• Rush PPG – ninth (4.53)

Fantasy managers know the value of a good rushing quarterback and Dobbs brings that skill set to the table, as only eight quarterbacks have rushed for a higher PPG total and Dobbs is within 1.35 rush PPG of four of them.

This is not an anomaly, as when Dobbs graduated from the University of Tennessee, he was the program’s all-time leader among quarterbacks in rushing yards and touchdowns and placed 14th in Volunteers history in rushing yards by players at any position. In addition, 11.1 percent of his rushes this season have occurred on planned rushing plays, which is behind only Jalen Hurts (15.5 percent) and Lamar Jackson (12.7 percent) in that category.

If Dobbs can keep a roughly 4-5 PPG pace going on the ground, he will only need around 12-13 passing PPG to rate as a low-end QB1. The good news is that Dobbs has already been hitting that mark through the air, as in Weeks 2-4 he is averaging 14.43 passing PPG, a rate that ranks 14th in that span.

The biggest negative here may be the schedule, as the Cardinals face Cincinnati and the Rams in Weeks 5-6, have a road contest versus Seattle in Week 7, then face Baltimore and Cleveland in Weeks 8-9. Even with those roadblocks, when everything is added together Dobbs still rates as a solid fill-in candidate.

C.J. Stroud

• Overall QB PPG – 11th (18.64)
• Vertical PPG – second (9.55)
• Short PPG – 10th (8.82)
• Rush PPG – 23rd (1.28)

Stroud is being touted by many for having compiled the third highest passing yardage total through four career starts in league history, trailing only Cam Newton, but what fantasy managers will like most is that through those four games Stroud trails only Kirk Cousins in vertical fantasy PPG.

Advertisement

That Stroud has done this with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods while Cousins has Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison speaks volumes for Stroud’s ability. It also looks to be a carryover from Stroud’s collegiate days, as in 2022 he led the Big Ten by a significant margin in pass plays of 10+, 20+, 30+, and 40+ yards (per cfbstats.com). Houston also operates an offense that is pass-centric enough to allow Stroud to place tenth in short PPG.

The Texans don’t have a favorable schedule over the next few weeks, as in Weeks 5-9 Houston faces Atlanta, then New Orleans, then has a bye, and finishes with Carolina and Tampa Bay. All of those defenses currently place 13th or better in pass PPG allowed. It should also be pointed out that Newton’s rookie numbers started to drop after a time when teams figured out his tendencies and took certain types of throws away — but even with those potential negatives, Stroud should still rate as a QB1 candidate for much of the rest of the year.

Sam Howell

• Overall QB PPG – 20th (14.16)
• Vertical PPG – 21st (4.68)
• Short PPG – 21st (6.43)
• Rush PPG – 13th (3.55)

Howell is much like Dobbs in that he showcased superb rushing skills in college, as per his UNC bio, Howell was only the third QB in the playoff era to post five games with 300+ passing yards and five games with 100+ rushing yards in a season and joined Lamar Jackson as the only Power 5 QBs to tally back-to-back games with 300+ passing yards and 100+ rushing yards.

Those ground skills have been put to good use this year, but only on scrambles, as all 11 of Howell’s rushes have occurred when scrambling after dropping back. That may limit Howell’s overall rushing impact and his passing game numbers are solid but not great even if one factors out the abysmal Week 3 showing against Buffalo when Howell scored only 0.6 fantasy points.

Where Howell gets a huge short-term advantage is in the schedule, as the Commanders Week 5 opponent is Chicago. The Bears secondary has been obliterated with injuries and it is why Chicago is 30th in fantasy pass PPG allowed this year. That makes Howell an ideal Week 5 pickup, but overall he ranks last among this trio in terms of waiver priority.

Advertisement

Related: Michael Salfino’s scouting notebook with analysis on Jaleel McLaughlin, Joe Burrow and more

Running backs

2. Can Khalil Herbert be trusted in fantasy lineups?

Herbert was something of the de facto lead back in the Bears committee backfield through the first three weeks of the season, but that changed in a notable way in Week 4, as evidenced by the Chicago running back snap counts against Denver.

Bears RBs (2023)

Roschon Johnson has earned a role as a pass catcher, but this indicates that Herbert should be the Bears’ go-to running back in upcoming weeks. That could offer significant upside value since Chicago’s run defense schedule includes three green-rated matchups in Weeks 5-10 and only two red-rated matchups between now and the end of the fantasy playoffs.

This combination will make Herbert a solid flex or RB2 candidate in most weeks and could vault him into RB1 contention versus favorable matchups as he was by scoring 22.2 PPR points against the Broncos.

3. Trade high on De’Von Achane?

Fantasy managers know that Achane is the ultimate hot hand player right now, as he has reached the end zone on six of the last 33 times he has carried or caught the ball.

That will cause many to think of Achane as a trade high candidate, but the best time to do that may be a couple of weeks down the road, as Miami faces the New York Giants and Carolina in Weeks 5-6. Those defenses currently rank 30th and 31st, respectively, in running back rush PPG allowed this season and thus are green-rated matchups worth targeting.

The schedule gets much tougher after that, as the Dolphins have only one green-rated rush defense matchup after Week 6 and have four red-rated ones, including three in Weeks 14-17 — so the suggestion is to play Achane for the next two weeks and then consider dealing him for a very good player in return.

Advertisement

4. What does the workload split between Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers look like now?

Akers was inactive in Week 3, which is no surprise given the limited amount of time he had to acclimate to a new team, but he was on the gameday roster for Week 4. So, what did his snap count indicate about the workload split between him and Mattison? Here are the Week 4 numbers.

Vikings RBs (2023)

Akers has already claimed about one-quarter of the carries, as Akers had five carries versus Mattison’s 17, but has already nearly equaled Mattison in routes and pass block snaps and had two targets versus Mattison’s one in Week 4.

If that trend continues, it could crush Mattison’s pass catching value, a factor that is very disconcerting since passing production accounted for 22.3 out of Mattison’s 35.8 PPR points in Weeks 1-3.

This pushes Mattison down into the RB2 tier and if Akers eventually turns this into a platoon from a rush perspective, Mattison will become a pure flex play. Regarding Akers, he is only a bench stash candidate for the moment and that won’t change until his pass catching production comes up and/or he starts taking some carries from Mattison.

5. Is it time to bench Rhamondre Stevenson?

After a pair of games where Stevenson scored 7.2 and 6.0 PPR points, respectively, it would sure seem that way. Adding credence to that thought is a Week 5 matchup versus the New Orleans Saints, a team that ranks second in PPG allowed on running back rushing plays this season.

The Patriots also face the Bills in Week 7, so that could make four out of five weeks that fantasy managers would have preferred not to start Stevenson, but New England does have a highly favorable matchup against Las Vegas in Week 6 (the Raiders are 21st in RB rushing PPG allowed) and then has four green-rated rush defense matchups from Weeks 8-14.

It’s almost never a good idea to trade a player away when his value is low, so instead of bailing on Stevenson for a mediocre trade, try to stick with him for that Week 6 matchup and the rest of season value, as that is the best way to maximize your roster assets.

Advertisement

Wide receivers/tight ends

6. Is Dallas Goedert going to turn things around any time soon?

Tight end has been one of the most disappointing fantasy positions in 2023 and Goedert is one of the main players on that disappointment list.

The problem is twofold. Last year, Goedert was one of the best short pass catching tight ends in fantasy football, as he ranked fourth in the league in TE PPR PPG at that depth level with an 8.6 mark. Goedert wasn’t as adept on vertical passes, but he made some solid contributions by posting 3.17 PPR PPG, which ranked ninth among tight ends.

He is nowhere near either of those paces this season, as Goedert is 26th in short PPR PPG (4.78) and 39th in vertical PPR PPG (0.68).

The cause of this problem is quite simple, as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have taken over the passing game. That duo accounts for 26 out of the 33 vertical targets on this club and has nabbed 47 of the 67 short pass targets.

Since Philadelphia is a run-centric offense, there just aren’t going to be enough targets to go around to involve tight ends, especially since the schedule has six red-rated tight end coverage matchups in the Eagles next nine games.

Add it up and it’s time to find another tight end, and here is someone who should be high on your list.

7. Is Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson the real deal?

Ferguson has been a high floor tight end so far this year, as he has notched three straight games with 9.8 or more PPR points.

This has been mostly due to short passes, as Ferguson ranks eighth in short PPR PPG (7.58) and is ahead of David Njoku, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller and Jonnu Smith in this category.

He doesn’t fare as well on vertical passes, ranking 18th, but his 1.85 PPR PPG mark in that metric keeps within one point per game of TE1 status in this metric and thus doesn’t make it a deal breaker.

Advertisement

The schedule isn’t entirely favorable for Ferguson, as Dallas has four red-rated tight end coverage matchups for the rest of the season, but the Cowboys also have four green-rated matchups, including three in Weeks 14-17.

Put this all together and Ferguson is a good insurance policy and solid start candidate for fantasy managers who need to upgrade scoring at this position.

(Top photo: Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57k3JpampnbHxzfJFsZmpoX2V%2FcLLAp6uaq6lis7C705uYpaRdrLKmt4xtZJ2dpqS7bq3CoZinnV2Yt26%2F06umrpxf